San Mateo County and Santa Clara County real estate update

 
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In Silicon Valley and on the coast, we sense plenty of fuel in the tank pointing to a continued and sustained economic growth cycle. Let's look at some corroborating highlights from the Santa Clara County real estate market, followed by data from San Mateo County.

Santa Clara County real estate

Santa Clara County real estate, Sunnyvale home for sale
Santa Clara County real estate, Sunnyvale home for sale

Median Price Two-year Trends:

  • For sale, under contract/pending and sold median prices all trending up over 20% over the past two years, no surprises here.

Supply & Demand Units:

  • The number of units for sale has trended down a remarkable -45% over these past two years.
  • Under contract/pending trend is nearly flat but for the second year in a row, closed/sold units trending down significantly – more than -10% countywide.

Month's Supply of Inventory & Days on Market:

  • Increasing year-over-year pressure in this market evidenced by a figure of 1 MSI for this June as compared to 1.8 MSI a year ago. MSI has been nearly cut in half from what we know was a very tight market in 2014.
  • For sale properties on the last day of the month numbered 1,531 this June as compared to 3,096 a year ago.
  • Days on market has sunk to the low 20s for most of this year.

Sales Absorption:

  • Record levels approaching and slightly exceeding 50% since February of this year. The same period last year ranged from 32% to slightly over 36%. Another indicator of increased market tension.

San Mateo County real estate

This Redwood City home in San Mateo County is listed for $2,598,000.
This Redwood City home in San Mateo County is listed for $2,598,000.

Median Price Two-year Trends:

  • For sale, under contract/pending and sold median prices all trending up around and over +30% for the past two years.

Supply & Demand Units:

  • Mirroring Santa Clara County real estate trends, San Mateo County’s for-sale inventory has experienced a declining trend of nearly -50% over the past two years.
  • Under contract properties have trended down -10%, and the number of sold/closed properties have seen a substantial decline of -18%.

Month's Supply of Inventory & Days on Market:

  • Hard to imagine but true that San Mateo County had less than 1 MSI at the end of June (27 days to be exact). This is compared to 1.7 MSI in June of 2014.
  • There were 492 properties for sale at the end of this June, compared to 1,019 just one year earlier.

Sales Absorption:

  • Under-contract percentage figures are slightly eclipsing even that of Santa Clara County, with more than 50% under contract in three of the past five months.

In summary, we remain at an all-time inventory level trough, even for this time of the year. January of 2015 marked the all-time inventory low for our market areas, and we’re now standing at an all-time seasonal low. This trend will dictate a great deal for the balance of 2015 and early 2016.

At current inventory levels, and given the seasonality of new listing behavior, there is a low probability that available for-sale housing will rise in any meaningful way before the end of the year. As a result, it's likely that the beginning of 2016 will once again kick off another year with limited inventory.

As to demand, recent worldwide economic concerns haven’t diminished the overall healthy appetite for San Mateo and Santa Clara County real estate. Given the limited supply, it would not take much demand to buoy and sustain what's actually available at this time, and there is hardly any shortage of buyers.